OREGON REAL ESTATE ROUND TABLE

Category: Ecconomy

  • Bernanke Asset Purchases Risk Unleashing 1970s Inflation Genie, by Craig Torres, Bloomberg.com


    Official portrait of Federal Reserve Chairman ...
    Image via Wikipedia

    For the second time since he became chairman in 2006, Ben S. Bernanke is leading the Federal Reserve into uncharted monetary territory.

    Bernanke next week is likely to preside over a decision to launch another round of large-scale asset purchases after deploying $1.7 trillion to pull the economy out of the financial crisis, comments from policy makers over the past week indicate. This time, with interest rates already near zero, the Fed will be aiming to increase the rate of inflation and reduce the cost of borrowing in real terms. The goal is to unlock consumer spending and jump-start an economy that’s growing too slowly to push unemployment lower.

    Estimates for the ultimate size of the asset-purchase program range from $1 trillion at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research to $2 trillion at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., with economists at both firms agreeing the Fed will likely start by announcing $500 billion after the Nov. 2-3 meeting. The danger is that once the Fed kindles price increases, inflation will be difficult to control.

    “By reducing real interest rates and trying to break the psychology of ‘Why spend today when I can buy goods cheaper tomorrow,’ they are hoping to drive growth that would be more commensurate with a pickup in employment,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “The risk is a late 1970s type of scenario where the inflation genie gets out of the bottle.”

    The U.S. Treasury Department yesterday sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Fed will be successful in sparking inflation. The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent.

    ‘Unacceptable’ Inflation

    William Dudley, president of the New York Fed and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, yesterday repeated that current levels of inflation and a 9.6 percent unemployment rate are “unacceptable” and said the Fed needs to take action, even though expanding the balance sheet isn’t a “perfect tool.”

    “To the extent that we can do things to improve the economic environment, we certainly owe it to the millions of people who are unemployed to do so,” Dudley said in response to audience questions after a speech in Ithaca, New York. Policy makers haven’t yet decided whether to buy additional assets, he said.

    A second jolt of monetary stimulus would expand the Fed’s $2.3 trillion balance sheet to a record and likely work through the exchange rate as well as interest rates, said former Fed governor Lyle Gramley. A weaker dollar would boost U.S. exports and push prices higher as the cost of imported goods rises.

    Competitive Exports

    “It is a channel that works not only from the standpoint of encouraging more growth and making exports more competitive, but if you’re worried about inflation getting too low, this tends to put a little upward pressure” on it, said Gramley, a senior adviser at Potomac Research Group in Washington.

    An index of the dollar versus six major currencies is down 5.2 percent since Sept. 20, the day before Fed officials concluded their last meeting by saying inflation measures were “somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.” The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up 3.8 percent since then.

    A 10 percent decline in the dollar in the first six months of next year would push the economy above estimates of trend growth, moving indicators on inflation and employment more rapidly toward the Fed’s policy goals, according to a simulation run by Macroeconomic Advisers LLC on their model of the U.S. economy.

    Effect on GDP

    Gross domestic product would rise 1.1 percentage points more than the St. Louis-based firm’s baseline forecast for next year, to 4.8 percent. In 2012, growth of 5.7 percent would exceed the baseline forecast by 1.3 percentage points.

    Unemployment would fall to 7 percent by the end of 2012, 1.4 points lower than the firm’s baseline forecast. The consumer price index, minus food and energy, would rise 0.4 percent and 0.7 percent more each year.

    A continuing rally in stocks could also provide an added lift to growth, the firm’s simulation showed.

    The firm, co-founded by former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, predicts the Wilshire 5000 stock index will jump 14 percent next year and 16 percent in 2012. The index tracks the impact of rising asset prices on household net worth. An additional 10 percent gain in the stock index in the first half of 2011 boosts growth by 0.1 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point more than the firm’s baseline forecast.

    ‘Transmission Mechanism’

    “The transmission mechanisms are risk assets and a lower dollar,” said Steven Einhorn, who helps manage $5 billion at hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc. in New York. “Exports will respond over the next six to 12 months, and a further lift in risk assets will have benefits in more consumer spending as it lifts households’ net worth.”

    A weaker dollar won’t be welcomed by U.S. trading partners concerned about the danger of competitive devaluations as nations seek to boost exports and growth.

    Bernanke received “criticism” at a meeting of Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers in South Korea last weekend, said German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle.

    “It’s the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by adding more liquidity,” Bruederle told reporters. “Excessive, permanent money creation in my opinion is an indirect manipulation of an exchange rate.”

    $500 Billion

    Economists Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs and Ethan Harris at Bank of America predict the Fed will spread an initial $500 billion in asset purchases over six months. That is the figure mentioned in the Oct. 1 speech by Dudley, who said $500 billion in purchases could have the same effect as cutting the benchmark federal funds rate by as much as a 0.75 percentage point.

    The FOMC’s meeting next week could be contentious, with regional bank presidents such as Charles Plosser of Philadelphia and Richard Fisher of Dallas expressing concern in public remarks about a second round of asset purchases. Neither is a voting member of the FOMC this year.

    Plosser told reporters Oct. 20 that high unemployment may not be “amenable to monetary-policy solutions” and added that he was “less inclined to want to follow a policy that is highly concentrated on raising inflation and raising inflation expectations.”

    Fisher said central bank officials must be mindful of the effect their actions are having on the dollar.

    Dollar Impact

    “We need to be aware of the impact whatever we do has on other variables, and one of the variables is the dollar, the value of the dollar against other currencies,” Fisher said in an Oct. 22 interview in New York.

    The prospect of an easier policy for a long period could prompt foreign investors to use Fed purchases as an opportunity to unload longer-term Treasuries, said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed Board’s Division of Monetary Affairs.

    “This might put more pressure on the exchange value of the dollar than the Fed is willing to tolerate,” said Reinhart, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

    Some commodity prices have already started to move up in anticipation of further Fed stimulus. Gold futures traded on the Comex in New York have risen 22 percent this year to $1,338.90 an ounce, while silver is up 40 percent.

    “The Fed would like to talk up as many asset classes as it can,” said Scott Minerd, the Santa Monica-based chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners LLC, who helps oversee $76 billion.

    Asset Bubbles

    “The history of the Fed, over the last 20 years, is one of bubble to bubble: one bubble deflates to create another bubble,” Minerd said. “We are certainly heading into the mother of all bubbles with commodities and gold.”

    Another danger for the Fed is that its policy fails to have the intended effect, damaging the central bank’s credibility, Reinhart said.

    “What happens if they bulk up the portfolio by another $500 billion in the next six months and there is no material change in markets or the outlook,” he said. “Presumably, the Fed will double-down and buy some more, but at some point, people will ask, ‘Is that all there is?’”

    U.S. central bankers cut the benchmark lending rate to zero in December 2008. Seeking more stimulus, they launched a $1.7 trillion program to buy mortgage-backed securities, housing agency debt and U.S. Treasuries. The purchases ended in March.

    Jackson Hole

    Bernanke told central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in August that those purchases “pushed investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics,” lowering interest rates on a broad range of debt.

    While a second round of Treasury purchases would also lower nominal rates, the FOMC has been explicit about the need to lower real interest rates through higher inflation, minutes of its Sept. 21 meeting show.

    The personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, rose at a 1.4 percent annual rate in August. That’s below the Fed’s long-run preference range of 1.7 percent to 2 percent. The year-over-year increase in consumer prices jumped as high as 14.8 percent in 1980 during the administration of Jimmy Carter.

    Even moderate rates of inflation can shift wealth through the economy. Companies can make more money because their prices rise faster than wages. Households can also benefit as incomes eventually rise while costs on fixed-rate debt stay the same.

    Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. chief financial officer John Hartung told Bloomberg Television Oct. 22 that he expects inflation to be in the low-single to mid-single digits next year. “We would welcome modest inflation along with the continued pickup in consumer demand,” Hartung said.

    To contact the reporters on this story: Craig Torres in Washingtont ; or Scott Lanman in Washington at slanman@bloomberg.net.

    To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

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  • Chris Dudley’s Tax Cut: Capitol Gains


    People are upset that Chris Dudley wants to cut the Capitol gains tax by 73%.   In this down economy who is going to be paying any capitol gains in Oregon over the next 4 or more years?  We might as well get rid of Capitol gains for businesses that pay living wage jobs and hire Oregonians and increase taxes on businesses that hire people from out of state.  The tax cut should only count if the job goes to someone that lives in Oregon.  We could also tier a deferment for the tax over the next 10 years to ensure businesses are motivated to grow through this down cycle and advance employment.   Just saying….LOL

    http://www.chrisdudley.com/issues/plan-to-create-private-sector-jobs.html

  • Obama Administration Awards Additional $1 Billion to Stabilize Neighborhoods Hard-Hit by Foreclosure, RisMedia


    RISMEDIA, September 13, 2010—U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan awarded an additional $1 billion in funding to all states along with a number of counties and local communities struggling to reverse the effects of the foreclosure crisis. The grants announced today represent a third round of funding through HUD’s Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) and will provide targeted emergency assistance to state and local governments to acquire, redevelop or demolish foreclosed properties.

    “These grants will support local efforts to reverse the effects these foreclosed properties have on their surrounding neighborhoods,” said Donovan. “We want to make certain that we target these funds to those places with especially high foreclosure activity so we can help turn the tide in our battle against abandonment and blight. As a direct result of the leadership provided by Senator Chris Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank, who played key roles in winning approval for these funds, we will be able to make investments that will reduce blight, bolster neighboring home values, create jobs and produce affordable housing.”

    The funding announced today is provided under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. To date, there have been two other rounds of NSP funding: the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA) provided $3.92 billion and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) appropriated an additional $2 billion. Like those earlier rounds of NSP grants, these targeted funds will be used to purchase foreclosed homes at a discount and to rehabilitate or redevelop them in order to respond to rising foreclosures and falling home values. Today, 95 cents of every dollar from the first round of NSP funding is obligated—and is in use by communities, buying up and renovating homes, and creating jobs.

    State and local governments can use their neighborhood stabilization grants to acquire land and property; to demolish or rehabilitate abandoned properties; and/or to offer downpayment and closing cost assistance to low- to moderate-income home buyers (household incomes do not exceed 120% of area median income). In addition, these grantees can create “land banks” to assemble, temporarily manage, and dispose of vacant land for the purpose of stabilizing neighborhoods and encouraging re-use or redevelopment of urban property. HUD will issue an NSP3 guidance notice in the next few weeks to assist grantees in designing their programs and applying for funds.

    NSP 3 will take full advantage of the historic First Look partnership Secretary Donovan announced with the National Community Stabilization Trust last week. First Look gives NSP grantees an exclusive 12-14 day window to evaluate and bid on properties before others can do so. By giving every NSP grantee the first crack at buying foreclosed and abandoned properties in these targeted neighborhoods, First Look will maximize the impact of NSP dollars in the hardest-hit neighborhoods—making it more likely the properties that communities want to buy are strategically chosen and cutting in half the traditional 75-to-85 day process it takes to re-sell foreclosed properties .

    NSP also seeks to prevent future foreclosures by requiring housing counseling for families receiving home buyer assistance. HUD seeks to protect future home buyers by requiring states and local grantees to ensure that new home buyers under NSP receive homeownership counseling and obtain a mortgage loan from a lender who agrees to comply with sound lending practices.

    In determining the allocations announced today, HUD, as it did with NSP1, followed key indicators for the distribution formula outlined by Congress. HUD is using the latest data to implement the Congressional formula. The formula weighs several factors to match funding to need in the 20% most distressed neighborhoods as determined based on the number and percentage of home foreclosures, the number and percentage of homes financed by a subprime mortgage related loan, and the number and percentage of homes in delinquency. To estimate the level of need down to the neighborhood level, HUD uses a model that takes into account causes of foreclosures and delinquencies, which include housing price declines from peak levels, and increases in unemployment, and rate of high cost and highly leveraged loans. HUD also considers vacancy problems in neighborhoods with severe foreclosure related problems.

    In addition to a third round of NSP funding, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act creates a $1 billion Emergency Homeowners Loan Program to be administered by HUD. This loan program will provide up to 24 months in mortgage assistance to homeowners who are at risk of foreclosure and have experienced a substantial reduction in income due to involuntary unemployment, underemployment, or a medical condition. HUD will announce additional details, including the targeted areas and other program specifics when the program is officially launched in the coming weeks.

    For more information, visit www.hud.gov.

    RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to:realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.

    http://rismedia.com

  • Federal Housing Stimulus: How Much More?, Diana Olick, CNBC


    New reports are rolling around Wall Street and Washington today that the Obama Administration is considering yet another economic stimulus package; this round would be for small businesses. This comes just one week after increased chatter about more government stimulus for housing.

    Congress returns the week of September 13th, and as Democrats face an uncertain election this November, you know they’re going to be looking to make average Americans feel more secure about their finances.

    But how much has housing stimulus really helped?

    Through July 3, 2010, the IRS reports a bill of $23.5 for the home buyer tax credit, according to a letter dated yesterday (September 2nd) from the Government Accountability Office to Rep. John Lewis, Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight. $16.2 billion for the first time and move-up credits and $7.3 billion for interest-free loans which recipients will begin repaying in January.

    The Department of Housing and Urban Development has also already allocated nearly $6 billion for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program, which gives state and local governments and non-profit housing developers funds to acquire property, demolish or rehabilitate foreclosures and offer assistance to low- to middle-income homebuyers for down payments and closing costs. In the coming weeks it will add $1 billion to that. Just this week HUD Secretary Donovan gave NSP grantees a leg up over investors, by providing a first right of refusal for those grantees to buy foreclosed homes.

    The talk around Washington is for yet another home buyer tax credit, this time perhaps for short sale and foreclosure buyers. Unfortunately every time we get a short-term stimulus, we get an inevitable drop off in sales and prices, as we’re experiencing now. Yes, we saw a mini burst of buying from credits last fall and this spring, but the overall numbers are still way down, and inventories are still far too high.

    The one steady in gauging housing is confidence, and until we get that back, sales will remain weak for the foreseeable future.

    Government stimulus, arguably, sells houses, and we need that to bring down our currently record-high inventories.

    But Government stimulus is also temporary, and everyday buyers and sellers recognize that, which doesn’t add to their already faltering confidence.

    Questions?  Comments?  RealtyCheck@cnbc.com

  • Multnomah County Foreclosures


    It has been nearly 5 months since Multnomahforeclosures.com (http://www.multnomahforeclosures.com/) has been updated. As of July 6th, 2010 the site will be updated weekly again. Each week the Notice of Default lists for several counties in Oregon and Clark County will be posted. This information is public information and is provided to make it easier for real estate buyers and the professionals that serve them to develop opportunities in the Oregon market.

    Visit Multnomah Foreclosures, download the Notice of Default reports for free and help the Oregon Market grow!

  • FHA CHANGES ARE COMING!


    Mortgage Insurance Premiums increased from 1.75 to 2.25% – Effective April 1st
    · Seller Contribution decreased from 6% to 3% – TBA early Spring

    · Increased Monthly MI – Effective date TBA

    Increased down payment for borrowers with lower credit scores TBA

    TAX CREDIT: Buyer must have a binding purchase contract by April 30th to qualify for tax credit.

    WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?

    A 200k purchase price after April 30th may have up to a 15k impact on the borrower.
    (Assuming current rates stay the same. Well…we all know what happens when we assume J)

    ACTION REQUIRED:

    Convert any “shoppers” into BUYERS between NOW and April 30th!

    Don’t hesitate to call or e-mail with any questions you may have concerning how this will affect your clients.

    Melissa Stashin

    Sr. Mortgage Banker/ Branch Manager
    NMLS #40033

    Pacific Residential Mortgage, LLC

    2 CenterPointe Dr. STE 500

    Lake Oswego, OR 97035

    (503) 670-0525 x113

    (971) 221-5656 Cell

    (503) 670-0674 Fax

    (800) 318-4571 Toll Free

    http://www.TeamStashin.com

  • Multnomah County Foreclosures Web Site Updated with New Lists


    Multnomahforeclosures.com was updated today with the largest list of Notice Defaults to date. With Notice of Default records dating back nearly 2 years. Multnomahforeclosures.com idocuments the fall of the great real estate bust of the 21st centry.

    All listings are in PDF and Excel Spread Sheet format.

    Multnomah County Foreclosures
    http://multnomahforeclosures.com

  • Oregon’s rich getting richer and all others falling behind, wage study shows By Jeff Manning, The Oregonian


    A new analysis of state wages shows that the gulf between Oregon’s wealthy and everyone else continues to widen.

    Oregon’s wealthiest are not only earning more, but the rate at which their incomes are growing far outstrips the middle class and the poor.

    Meanwhile, the middle class continued to encounter stagnant wages this past decade — even during the vaunted economic boom that preceded the bust — and saw its compensation fall back to 2001 levels in the recession-racked year of 2008, according to a draft analysis of wage trends by the Oregon Employment Department.

    Inflation-adjusted annual wages for Oregon’s top 2 percent of earners hit $153,480 on average in 2008, a 29.5 percent increase from 1990.

    Workers at the 50 percentile, meanwhile, earned $32,659 in 2008, an increase of just 2.4 percent over 1990 after adjusting for inflation.

    “Wage inequality in Oregon rose steadily between 1990 and 2000, declined slightly in 2001 and 2002, and continued to increase to its peak in 2007,” the study said.

    The analysis considers only wages. The disparity would be far greater if the numbers included investment income.

    The growing income gap takes on a new significance as Oregonians consider Measure 66, which would increase by 1.8 percentage points the marginal tax rate on personal income above $250,000 for couples, $125,000 for an individual.

    Long after Measure 66 is a distant memory, however, the wage gap will pose a daunting challenge, threatening America’s view of itself as a land of equal opportunity, some economists argue.

    The free-market fervor that has gripped the country since the Ronald Reagan administration has allowed the country, for the most part, to remain competitive in a globalized economy. But some contend that the trickle-down economy has sent just that — a trickle — to the masses, while steering a torrent of riches to the wealthy.

    “There’s something going on at the very top, an explosion of the ‘uber-rich,’” said Bryce Ward, a senior economist with Portland-based consulting firm ECONorthwest. “There’s been no growth in a decade for the middle.”

    Fiscal conservatives generally have dismissed concerns about income inequality as “class warfare.” They argue that economic growth benefits rich and poor alike.

    But recently, there has been some recognition from the right that a struggling middle class and a dysfunctional underclass poses a threat to all.

    In a controversial and much-cited article that ran this winter in the quarterly National Affairs, conservative writer and entrepreneur Jim Manzi argues that the growing income disparity poses a dilemma for which there is no obvious answer.

    “If we reverse the market-based reforms that have allowed us to prosper,” Manzi wrote, “we will cede global economic share; but if we let inequality and its underlying causes grow unchecked, we will hollow out the middle class — threatening social cohesion, and eventually surrendering our international position anyway.”

    It wasn’t always this way.

    Liberal-leaning economists point to the decades after World War II as a golden era when the economy enjoyed sustained, vigorous growth, despite high taxes, and the benefits of that growth were evenly spread across the socio-economic spectrum.

    Those growth years helped create the middle class as we now know it, a huge group that enjoyed low unemployment and big wage gains and even some degree of retirement security.

    The golden era began to wane in the 1970s.

    The economy struggled, inflation ate up people’s buying power, as did double-digit interest rates. And for the first time in decades, wages no longer grew in lockstep with gains in economic productivity, said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist with the liberal Economic Policy Institute.

    A laundry list of powerful forces contributed to the stagnating wages: The decline of organized labor, the erosion of the minimum wage, the shift from a manufacturing-based to service-based economy, and, perhaps most of all, the globalization of the economy, Shierholz said.

    Manzi adds immigration to that list. While globalization forced American employers to compete with low-wage foreign operations, immigration provided a stream of low-skilled workers across our borders willing to accept less.

    American political leaders turned to free-market policies to see them through the uncertain new era. The Reagan administration deregulated industries and cut taxes. George W. Bush followed up with further tax reductions in the name of spurring the economy.

    The free-market policies helped America pull out of the economic doldrums. But Manzi and many other economists contend the rising tide did not lift all boats.

    “Rising inequality would have been easier to swallow had it been merely a statistical artifact of rapid growth in prosperity that substantially benefited the middle class and maintained social mobility,” Manzi wrote. “But this was not the case. Over the same period in which inequality has grown, wages have been stagnating for large swaths of the middle class, and income mobility has been declining.”

    It’s this decline in social mobility — the ability of Americans to rise beyond their socio-economic origins — that worries Ward. The rags-to-riches story that has long been a bulwark of the American Dream still happens. But it’s becoming more rare, he argues.

    “My concern is just with opportunity,” Ward said. “There should be no correlation between your parents’ earnings and yours.”

    In a 2007 article he co-wrote about wage inequality, Ward pointed out that in 1965 the typical CEO earned 24 times what the typical worker earned; in 2005, 262 times.

    Along with stagnant wages has come what sociologist Jacob Hacker calls “the great risk shift.” In a trend that has only picked up steam in the recession, employers have slashed health care and retirement benefits, leaving workers to shoulder more of that burden.

    Jared Bernstein, an economic advisor in the Obama administration, describes the new paradigm as the “yo-yo” economy, for “You’re on Your Own.”

    At least one prominent economist argues that income inequality has already taken a devastating toll.

    University of Chicago economist Raghuram Rajan, former director of research at the International Monetary Fund, posits that stagnant wages for the bulk of Americans contributed to the economic crash. Millions of Americans wracked up unprecedented debt earlier this decade because their compensation failed to keep up with the cost of living, Rajan theorizes.

    The nation’s financial sector enabled the debt bubble and then sliced and diced bad loans into bad mortgage-backed securities.

    It all blew up in 2007 and 2008.

    The recession’s impact is reflected in the Employment Department wage numbers.

    The study compares wages for four-quarter employees (those who worked all four quarters but not necessarily full-time) from 1990-2008 for four different income groups.

    Oregonians earning at the 50th percentile saw their inflation-adjusted wages grow 4.5 percent from $31,866 in 1990 to peak of $33,318 in 2004. The group’s income has fallen every year since then, finishing 2008 at $32,659, the lowest level since 2001.

    In contrast, those at the top 98th percentile of earners saw their inflation-adjusted wages climb 31 percent in the same 18 years from $118,453 in 1990 to a peak of $155,496 in 2007.

    The downturn took its toll on the high earners as well. Their income dipped to $153,480 in 2008.

    Wage numbers are not yet available for 2009. But given the state of the economy, they likely won’t improve for any income group.

  • Oregon ended 2009 11th in nation for foreclosure, Portland Business Journal


    Lenders foreclosed on 34,121 Oregon homes in 2009, three times more than in 2007 and well ahead of national trends.

    According to year-end figures released late Wednesday by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc., there were 90 percent more foreclosure actions involving Oregon residences in 2009 than in 2008 and a whopping 303 percent more than in 2007, when the meltdown began.

    The picture wasn’t any better nationwide, with nearly 4 million foreclosure filings against 2.8 million U.S. properties, 21 percent more than 2008 and 120 percent more than 2007.

    The report showed that 2.2 percent of all U.S. homes or one in every 45 residences received at lease one foreclosure filing during the year.

    “As bad as the 2009 numbers are, they probably would have been worse if not for legislative and industry-related delays in processing delinquent loans,” said James Saccacio CEO of RealtyTrac. “After peaking in July with over 3621,000 homes receiving a foreclosure notice, we saw four straight monthly decreases driven primarily by short-term factors: trial loan modifications, state legislation extending the foreclosure process and an overwhelming volume of inventory clogging the foreclosure pipeline.”

    Nevada, Arizona and Florida had the nation’s highest foreclosure rates while California, Florida, Arizona and Illinois together accounted for half of all activity.

    Oregon ranked 11th, with 2 percent of all homes affected, or one in 47.

    Clackamas, Columbia, Deschutes, Jackson, Jefferson, Josephine and Yamhill counties had Oregon’s highest foreclosure ratings.

    Washington state ranked 24th, with 35,268 foreclosure actions, 132 percent more than in 2007.

    http://portland.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2010/01/11/daily33.html

  • Banking Crisis for Dummies


    The financial crisis explained in simple terms ………………………..

    Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Berlin. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers – most of whom are unemployed alcoholics – to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

    Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi’s bar.

    Taking advantage of her customers’ freedom from immediate payment constraints, Heidi increases her prices for wine and beer, the most-consumed beverages. Her sales volume increases massively.

    A young and dynamic customer service consultant at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi’s borrowing limit.

    He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral.

    At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert bankers transform these customer assets into DRINKBONDS, ALKBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on markets worldwide. No one really understands what these abbreviations mean and how the securities are guaranteed. Nevertheless, as their prices continuously climb, the securities become top-selling items.

    One day, although the prices are still climbing, a risk manager of the bank (subsequently of course fired due to his negativity), decides that slowly the time has come to demand payment of the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi’s bar.

    However they cannot pay back the debts.

    Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy.

    DRINKBOND and ALKBOND drop in price by 95 %. PUKEBOND performs better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %.

    The suppliers of Heidi’s bar, having granted her generous payment due dates and having invested in the securities are faced with a new situation. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy; her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor.

    The bank is saved by the Government following dramatic round-the-clock consultations by leaders from the governing political parties.

    The funds required for this purpose are obtained by a tax levied on the non-drinkers.

    Finally, an explanation I understand.

    This should clear up any / all questions… Enjoy! J

    Melissa Stashin

    Sr. Loan Officer / Branch Manager

    Pacific Residential Mortgage, LLC

    2 CenterPointe Dr. STE 500

    Lake Oswego, OR 97035

    (503) 670-0525 x113

    (971) 221-5656 Cell

    (503) 670-0674 Fax

    (800) 318-4571 Toll Free

    http://www.TeamStashin.com

  • Point of Order by Matt Stashin, Pacific Residential Mortgage Company


    We’ve all heard the news: the dark storm clouds of the financial meltdown will cost the taxpayer hundreds of billions of dollars, if not several trillion by the time it is all said and done. Unemployment numbers are set to skyrocket. The U.S. automakers need a bailout, following suit after so many others. Retail sales were down substantially during the holiday shopping season. People are keenly aware of the possibility of layoffs. Are we done yet? Probably not.

    But amidst the ominous storm clouds lingering on the horizon, if one looks very closely, a platinum lining is visible amongst those clouds. One first reaction might be, “are you kidding?”. However, after a bit of reflection, one can begin to see the sun reflecting off that platinum lining.

    Regardless of an individual’s opinion of the bailout, the soon-to-be former administration and the role of the government in residential housing, the opportunities available in the market place today are unprecedented. We all recognize home values have dropped substantially in almost every neighborhood. And if this is coupled with extremely low interest rates (did someone say rivaling the lowest in 40 years?), the buying power of the consumer has not been more keen.

    One doesn’t have to look far to find a bargain. And with these interest rates, all factors have aligned in favor of the buyer. Sounds pretty good, huh? Well, it is for those who have put themselves in a good position to purchase a home. History will show them to have been very savvy. It pays to buy low, at the incredible interest rates, and watch one’s equity build substantial wealth over time.

    In today’s marketplace, 20% down isn’t the only option. There still exist a limited number of financing options with little to no down payment. In order to better prepare one’s self, a quick check of your credit scores are in order. Freecreditreport.com is a way to find out how your credit history will be analyzed by lenders; credit scores in excess of 740 give access to the best programs and pricing on interest rates. At least 2 years on the job, showing steady income will help on the employment front. Assets are nice to have, but not necessary to have in abundance for all programs. One will want to make sure that checking account statements (2 month’s worth) show no overdrafts. In today’s marketplace, lenders are more cautious than ever when it comes to loaning money to buy a home, but obtaining mortgage financing is still relatively painless when one chooses to work with a seasoned professional mortgage broker.

    With a mini refinance boom going on due to these record low interest rates, one issue the mortgage industry will have to face is the potential for a scarcity of funds. Today, due to the federal government’s conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie along with the strategy to have the Federal Reserve purchase mortgages, many fears have been eased regarding the availability of mortgage money. But a new problem may be just ahead. Wall Street, which capitalized about 60% of the mortgage market, has all but disappeared. Banks are publicly being told to lend money, while their regulators are telling them to maintain adequate reserves, which translates into holding onto their cash. Couple this with the mass exodus of foreign investment into the U.S. mortgage market, and one can imagine a market in which there is more demand to borrow than there is money to loan.

    Consider this: the Treasury department is issuing T-bills with very low yields that may not be attractive to buyers and the Federal Reserve will, at some point, rely on the funding created by the sale of T-bills to have enough capital to continue to purchase mortgages through Fannie and Freddie. If the appetite for low-yield T-bills drops off substantially, which may be a very real possibility, a liquidity crisis in the mortgage market could manifest itself.

    How does this apply to someone today who is considering purchasing a primary residence, a second home or an investment property? My point is this: don’t wait. A scarcity of funds will cause interest rates to skyrocket, overnight. Jumbo funds seem to be disappearing already, although conventional financing to loan amount limits of $417,000 is readily available. Banks don’t seem to be interested in tying up their liquidity in large loan amounts. To me, this is a sign. Not a “doom & gloom” sign, but a warning sign nevertheless. My interpretation here is now is the time to act. The banking system is sound, but mortgage financing is not the banking system. And when capital is being used at the current rate due to the refinance boom, it sets me to wondering how this will impact the availability of funds for mortgage lending throughout the course of this year.

    The federal government has a very tenuous road ahead of it this year. The conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie was meant to be a temporary situation and, as it is currently in place, will terminate at the end of 2009. Between now and then, the best and brightest minds in our country will have to reinvent the mortgage market. With many banks still teetering on the edge, one must think these low interest rates will take a toll on the availability of funds. Who will be interested, long term, in 4.5% paper? As the stock market starts to rebound, investors will be looking for higher returns on their money and interest in current mortgage paper yields will wane thereby creating a scarcity of funding for new lending.

    Thought the storm clouds continue to linger, and they may even get a bit darker in the near future, It is my opinion that today is perhaps the best opportunity to invest in real estate that has existed in decades. For the money, this seasoned mortgage professional thinks now is the time to get mortgage financing before it becomes a scarce resource. Those that buy houses now will likely look like a genius down the road.

    Am I saying this is a sure thing? NO; any investment carries risk and should be carefully evaluated. But I am saying when one peers into the storm clouds above and sees the shiny reflection of the sun off the platinum lining, one should strongly consider that the combination of low home prices and low interest rates is a sign to buy before the clouds all break up and disappear. And everyone knows the opportunity has slipped away once the storm has passed. And so I say, keep wear a raincoat and keep an umbrella handy while shopping for a home out under the storm clouds.

    Matt Stashin
    President/CEO

    Pacific Residential Mortgage, LLC
    2 CenterPointe Dr. STE 500
    Lake Oswego, OR 97035
    (503) 619-0482 Direct
    (503) 670-0674 Fax
    (800) 318-4571 Toll Free
    http://www.pacresmortgage.com


  • Oregon jobless like 1981; new help for homeowners? by Ryan Frank, The Oregonian November


    Oregon jobs: Oregon lost 14,100 seasonally adjusted jobs between September and October, the biggest decline since February 1981. That’s no typo. Since 1981. Rich Read has the story.

    Food stamp requests rising in Medford/Bend: The two housing markets powered by Californian transplants during the housing boom now see big jumps in food stamp requests. “I’ve been here 16 years and this is more than I’ve ever seen,” said Lisa Lewis, the state’s self-sufficiency program manager for the Medford area. Many of the people asking the state for help have never been in a welfare office before. They are “blue-collar professionals,” Lewis said. “They’re dry-wallers, electricians, plumbers.”

    St. Helens mill shutdown: Boise says it will layoff 300 people from its St. Helens paper and pulp mill, a major Columbia County employer.

    Homeowner help?: Lawmakers are again pushing financial officials to send help directly to homeowners to help them avoid foreclosure.

    Hotel forecast, um, not good:     Hotel occupancies are forecasted to fall to 58.6 percent in 2009, the lowest rate since 1971. “The deteriorating outlook for the economy is impacting travel habits and spending, and hotels are expected to experience reduced occupancy levels, and to a lesser degree, some room rate erosion through 2009,” said Scott Berman, principal and U.S. Leader of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Hospitality and Leisure practice.

    Anybody got some upbeat news?

     

     

    http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/

  • Mortgage Implode: Time to Get Your Bailout…The ‘Gimme Mine Coalition’


    2% Interest Only 5-year loans available again?!? Yes, but beware.

    -Home Owners and Mortgage professionals, this one is for you.

    I am a big advocate of mortgage modifications that include a fully documented re-underwrite and re-qualification of every borrower in America allowing a maximum of 28/36 debt to income ratios with market-rate 30-year fixed mortgages.

    Yesterday, the video camera was calling my name so I decided to go into more color on mortgage modifications.  Pass this video around to friends and family. Take matters into your own hands because it is obvious nobody will be riding to the rescue anytime soon.

    That being said, I do believe a large scale home owner bailout will come, but it will likely involve giving up present and future equity in your home.  Right now you do not need to do that.  You can even negotiate into the modification a better reporting of this event to the credit reporting agencies with some banks.

    In recent weeks I have seen banks get very aggressive including reducing principal balances to lower than the present home values and giving borrowers 2% interest only loans for five years.  Wachovia offered to buy down a friends mortgage to 2% on a 30-year fixed, however, they had to refi through FHA and carry a silent second for the principal balance reduction needed to get them to the FHA limit for the area.  This sounds great but I do not advocate a super low interest only rate without a principal balance reduction. Getting 2% today with no principal reduction just kicks the can down the road and will cause major troubles then.  Without a principal reduction you are still stuck unable to move or refi.

    I truly believe that there is a small window in time that exists right now where banks can’t handle any more foreclosures and you hold all the cards. The last thing the bank wants is another foreclosure and 65% write down.  If you play your cards right you can win and the bank can have a long-term customer paying her mortgage payment each and every month who will some day own the home. That is what it is all about.

    I also went into great detail on mortgage modifications on July 4th and I urge you re-read the posts. There is information in here you must know BEFORE taking on this task. You have to know what to ask for because banks are a ‘for profit’ business, which means decisions are not going to be in your best interest. – Best, Mr Mortgage

  • Can Home Buyers Get Help When Still Making Their Payments?


    Must a Borrower Stop Paying in Order to Get Help?

    by Jack M. Guttentag

    Inman News

     

    “Is it true that mortgage servicers will not help borrowers who are in trouble until they stop making their payments? I am a home retention counselor, and I keep hearing from people referred to me that they have received no response from their servicer because they have not yet missed a payment. I would hate to advise people that they have to stop paying if they expect to get any help if it is not true.”

    There is certainly much truth to this because I have heard the same story from numerous people I have counseled, whose stories I have no reason to doubt. The most common thing I hear is that they were told by the servicer to come back when they were two payments behind.

    There are understandable reasons why borrowers who are delinquent on their payments receive more prompt consideration than those who are current. To the degree that servicers are faced with more requests for help than they can handle at one time, they have to set priorities. The number of borrowers in trouble has ballooned over the past year, outstripping the efforts of servicers to expand their capacity to deal with them.

    Setting Priorities

    A plausible way to set priorities is in terms of the degree of urgency of the problem. A borrower 60 days behind in his payment is closer to foreclosure, and if he is going to be saved, he needs faster action than a borrower who is current. So borrowers who are current get placed at the bottom of the list of borrowers requiring special treatment, if they are even placed on the list at all.

    This tendency is reinforced by the fear of free-riders. All borrowers would like to get a better deal on their mortgages, whether they have trouble making their current payments or not. If loans are being modified to help borrowers, some borrowers who are not in financial distress will try to take advantage of the situation by pretending that they are. But potential free-riders may not be willing to become delinquent because that would hurt their credit. By only considering modifications for borrowers who are already delinquent, the servicer reduces the number of potential free-riders.

    In addition, the practice of dealing only with borrowers who are delinquent keeps loans in good standing for longer periods. Consider the borrower who loses her job but has savings sufficient to cover the payments for some months. Investors would prefer that the borrower make the payment out of savings for as long as possible, since she might find another job during this period, avoiding the need for any modification of the mortgage.

    Moving Up on the List

    If I were a borrower with reduced income but with good prospects of recovery, I would make the payment out of savings, avoiding the hit to my credit. If I considered the prospects of recovery to be poor, however, I would stop paying and husband my savings. This would move me up on the servicer’s priority list for special treatment. While it also moves up the hit to my credit, that is something that would happen anyway as soon as my savings were exhausted.

    If I did not have a problem making the current payment but would have a problem dealing with an anticipated payment increase, I would handle it differently.

    First, I would determine exactly how large the payment increase would be. If the increase stemmed from an interest-only loan reaching the end of the interest-only period, the new payment could be found using any monthly payment calculator (including calculator 7a on my Web site) inputting a term equal to the remaining life of the loan. If the increase stemmed from an ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) adjustment, the new payment wouldn’t be known exactly until a month or two before the adjustment, but an estimate based on the current value of the rate index would provide a good estimate.

    A Detailed Budget

    Step two is to develop a detailed budget which documents the point that the expected payment is not affordable. Use the form provided by Genworth to show your income, expenses, and assets.

    Submit your document to the servicer well in advance of the anticipated payment increase. There is no guarantee that it will lead to a contract modification before the payment increase materializes. However, it gives you a good shot to move up in the servicer’s queue by providing the concrete detailed information that servicers require. It also keeps you out of the hands of the modification hustlers who want to be paid upfront for doing what you can do yourself.

     

     

  • How Long Will it Be Before the Foreclosed Homeowner Feels Relief From the 700 Billion Dollar Bailout


    Not soon enough if ever. Let me explain.

    Bush announced that the first 250 billion dollar infusion is targeted for the banks. Which will take time to do and time to see if it works. Which will mean that the balance of the money will not be used (350 billion dollar) until the next president is inaugurated in January 2009.

    However, the Bush Administration has unveiled additional mortgage assistance for homeowners at risk of foreclosure. The HOPE for Homeowners program will refinance mortgages for borrowers who are having difficulty making their payments, but can afford a new loan insured by HUD’s Federal Housing Administration (FHA). There are a lot of issues to be dealt with, plus pre-qualifications needed by the homeowner, which means it will take time to be effective.

    So what is offered by both candidates and when will it start?

    Barack Obama proposed more immediate steps to heal the nation’s ailing economy, including a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures at some banks. Obama proposed that banks participating in the federal bailout should temporarily postpone foreclosures for families making good-faith efforts to pay their mortgage.

    Sen. John McCain proposed a plan to help millions of people around the country facing foreclosure by ordering the Treasury secretary to purchase and renegotiate faulty home loans.

    The plan is aimed at homeowners who owe more than their houses are worth or who are otherwise in danger of foreclosure. The government would use Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and private mortgage brokers to pay off the troubled loans and refinance the homeowners, making their payments more affordable.

    Again, this will take time and concerted effort by the powers to be to implement any program before relief is felt by the homeowner who is facing foreclosure or who is in foreclosure.

    The common thread above is TIME, no matter what you like or dislike about the government, the presidential candidates, or what is going on in Washington (D.C.).

    Bankers/ Lenders, realtors, real estate investors, and all scam artists want you to believe that you do not have enough time and, especially, they do not want you to know how the foreclosure process works.

    You are nothing more than a new profit center for them, and they only have their best interest at heart (not yours).

    I have a short video that will show you how scam artists work, and it may help you understand what not to do. Check it out: http://www.AvoidForeclosurePain.com/Now.htm

  • Help Us Save The Housing Industry


    Dear Reader,

     I wanted to make you aware of an important petition that is being circulated in support of a new plan to save the housing industry. It was developed by a mortgage industry insider and we, at the Originator Times, believe it’s the only current plan to restore faith in the housing market and create profitability within our industry once again.

    If you are sick of getting calls from potential customers you can’t help because they are upside down on their mortgages; tired of loan programs that are here today and gone tomorrow; frustrated with volatile rates and increasing credit score requirements; and angered by plans that bail out the wealthy and powerful and do nothing to fix the real problem then join mortgage industry veteran Scott Messina and the Originator Times in making our voices heard in Washington.  

    Now is the time to act!  Sign the petition to support Messina’s “Save the American Dream” plan – the only plan that solves the root of the housing problem and sets the wheels in motion for a 2009 refinance boom similar to 2003 levels. 

    Click here to sign the petition, or visit http://savetheamericandreamplan.com to read about the complete plan, or scroll down to read a summary, then forward this e-mail to everyone you know in the industry.

     

    Sincerely,

    Melissa Sike

    Editor  

    ***

    Save the American Dream Plan

     

    The banks on Wall Street got their bailout. Now, what about all of us in the housing industry and those who work on Main Street?   

    Were still hurting because the big Wall Street bailout did nothing to address the root cause of the housing crisis.   We need a real solution instead of a band-aid.  The Save the American Dream plan is the correct solution and it isn’t being heard in Washington because the people on Main Street – whom would be helped – aren’t donating millions of dollars to a particular political campaign, and therefore, have no economic representation in Washington.  For two reasons, it’s our responsibility as mortgage industry professionals to speak for those that have no voice and make Washington listen to the plan that will save struggling homeowners …and ourselves.  It’s our responsibility because we were a part of the problem (along with many others, including borrowers) and because we are the ones that have the industry knowledge and expertise to really do what needs to be done.  We are in a unique position here to really solve this crisis.  Click here to join us in support of the Save the American Dream plan .

    The Save the American Dream plan will empower those millions of Americans who because of foreclosure and financial chaos have been living out their worst nightmares and provide them with viable refinance options to wake up and restore their dream. 

    By providing millions of Americans with a refinance option as an alternative to foreclosure, we’ll in turn create a refinance boom within the industry. 

    The Save the American Dream plan will save Wall Street by lending Main Street a hand and will rescue the U.S. housing market in the process.

  • Betty Jung’s Blog: Market Update: Building Permits 2007 vs. 2008


    And, here are some more numbers:

    According to the Construction Monitor www.constructionmonitor.com and the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland, here is the 2008 Year-to-Date Building Permit activity by county.  It is at its lowest since 1991.

    Many small builders haven’t built anything new in several months and in some cases more than a year.  If you read my recent post “Market Update:  New Construction“, you will see there is still a large inventory of new homes that builders need to unload.  Remodeling is also lagging.

    In addition, many of the local builders here have filed for bankruptcy protection as I reported in my “Top 50 Builders in Oregon” post.  This weekend, I happened to notice another one of our larger local builders, whom I won’t name, is selling some of his lot inventory.  Is he in trouble or is he just making sure he won’t be? 

    2008 Year-to-date Building Permit Activity by County

    2008

    2007

    Difference

    WASHINGTON COUNTY

     

     

     

    Single Family

    650

    1,681

    -1,031

    Duplexes/Twin Homes

    0

    0

    0

    Other Residential Structures

    23

    96

    -73

    Residential Remodels

    291

    442

    -151

    MULTNOMAH COUNTY

     

     

     

    Single Family

    643

    1,249

    -606

    Duplexes/Twin Homes

    23

    84

    -56

    Other Residential Structures

    29

    66

    -37

    Residential Remodels

    1,004

    1,312

    -308

    CLACKAMAS COUNTY

     

     

     

    Single Family

    619

    1,361

    -743

    Duplexes/Twin Homes

    4

    9

    -5

    Other Residential Structures

    91

    209

    -118

    Residential Remodels

    417

    606

    -189

    YAMHILL COUNTY

     

     

     

    Single Family

    256

    370

    -114

    Duplexes/Twin Homes

    30

    13

    +17

    Other Residential Structures

    32

    154

    -122

    Residential Remodels

    91

    95

    -4

    Source:  Construction Monitor (www.constructionmonitor.com) and David Nielsen, Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland.

    Copyright ©Betty Jung 2008.  All Rights Reserved.

    Disclaimer: All information in this post is subject to change without notice. Subject matter is an opinion, is not guaranteed, may be time sensitive, and may be based on information collected from several sources which may or may not be reliable at the time of sourcing.  

    (For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter – JUNG’S JOURNAL – on my website www.bettyjung.com).
    Betty Jung
    Broker
    RE/MAX equity group, inc.
    503-495-5220 or email:bettyjung@remax.net

  • Portland Tribune: Mortgage losses mounting, Steve Law


    More area homeowners at risk as foreclosure proceedings double

     

    Uncle Sam is bailing out Wall Street wheeler-dealers who invested in home loans, but there’s no relief in sight for the homeowners on Main Street.

    On Southeast Main east of 144th Avenue, stretching from outer Southeast Portland into Gresham, 14 homeowners have been hit with foreclosure filings in the past year, plus scores more in nearby blocks.

    • Judy Myer pawned her wedding ring and stopped taking prescribed medicines in a futile bid to save her Southeast Main Street home of 18 years, after husband Mark Myer lost his job and his unemployment benefits expired.

    • Judy’s son, Steve, who lives down the street, got socked with foreclosure after his 7-year-old daughter required heart surgery. Steve took out a second mortgage to cover the medical bills, then fell behind on house payments after suffering an on-the-job injury.

    • Across the street from the Myers, Ron Zitzewitz just got a six-month notice to vacate his mother’s home – one month after she died. Zitzewitz, 51, isn’t old enough to assume his mother’s reversible mortgage, and can’t refinance the loan because he’s permanently disabled.

    Portland is no real-estate basket case like Las Vegas or Phoenix. But the national foreclosure crisis that initially spared Portland has arrived here in a big way, bringing more human suffering and dampening housing prices.

     

     

    Foreclosure forum

    Oregon’s presumed next attorney general, John Kroger, along with state lawmakers and community leaders, will host a town hall for people facing foreclosure or who think they were victimized by deceptive lending practices.

    The event, called There’s No Place Like Home, takes place 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 22, at Portland Community College’s Cascade campus, Moriarty Auditorium, at the corner of North Killingsworth Street and North Albina Avenue.

     

     

    The number of Multnomah County residents in jeopardy of losing their homes has nearly doubled in the last year, based on the number immersed in foreclosure proceedings. Over the spring and summer, 300 Multnomah County homeowners a month got slapped with foreclosure notices – topping the peak levels reached in the last recession of 2001-02.

    In August 2007, the Portland area had an enviable 332nd-highest foreclosure rating among the nation’s 383 metropolitan areas. But by August 2008, Portland jumped to 254th-highest, according to First American CoreLogic, which provides real estate data services.

    “There’s a shakeout right now, and we’re failing on all cylinders,” said Portland real estate economist Jerry Johnson.

    Portland took longer than most cities to emerge from the last recession and didn’t get as overbuilt as other markets, Johnson said.

    But Portland home prices kept rising during the last recession, he noted. If banks and besieged homeowners try to dump too many discounted properties, he said, “you could swamp the market and kill the guys who are OK.”

    Home prices are sliding in large swaths of the metro area, especially in overbuilt sectors such as Portland’s condo market and suburban Happy Valley. In early October, in the 97086 ZIP code that includes Happy Valley, there were 247 homeowners facing foreclosure on top of 95 homes seized by banks, according to VisionCore, a division of First American CoreLogic.

    Short sales drive down prices

    Many overburdened homeowners, anxious to avoid foreclosures that soil their credit ratings, are resorting to “short sales,” in which they sell quickly for less than their home loan if the lender agrees to accept the lower amount. Banks also are auctioning off seized homes to investors looking for sweet deals.

    Dumping all those distressed properties on the market, sometimes at fire-sale prices, is depressing home values for neighboring residences.

    In a half-block stretch of Liebe Street southeast of Holgate Boulevard and 118th Avenue, four homes went into foreclosure in recent months. Investor Mark Bordcosh snapped up one of them, a three-bedroom townhouse appraised at $217,000, and offered it in an auction, with a minimum bid of $137,500.

    “I’m basically getting the house at a discount and I’m selling it at a discount,” he said.

    All parts of the city are seeing some foreclosures, though they are less common on the west side and close-in east-side neighborhoods, according to VisionCore. Portland working-class neighborhoods, especially in North Portland and the outer east side, are getting more than their share, as residents lose jobs or get burned by escalating interest rates on subprime loans.

    Main Street doesn’t necessarily have the highest proportion of foreclosures. But it is representative of the outer east side – meaning it is seeing plenty of angst and misery.

    Adversity is magnified

    Southeast Main east of 144th Avenue, dotted with modest one-story homes and towering firs, has long been known as an affordable place to buy a home. But it’s no longer affordable to many longtime residents.

    Mark Myer, 57, who lost his computer tech job after his company was sold, doesn’t expect any of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout approved by Congress Oct. 3 will trickle down to his end of the food chain.

    “The people that are stomping on the individuals are the ones that got bailed out,” Myer said. “If they share and start helping out some people, fine. History shows they’ll just turn around and stomp on us again.”

    Myer landed part-time work, but said employers have been reluctant to hire him now that there’s a foreclosure on his record. That’s despite 22 years’ service in the Navy.

    Judy Myer stopped taking medicines a year ago for her anxiety attacks, high blood pressure and cholesterol. After two heart attacks, two back surgeries and anxiety problems, she’s not in good shape to work outside the home.

    “I don’t know what’s going to happen. It’s just scary,” she said. “We’ll never be able to go out and have dinner and a movie.”

    Her son, Steve, an automotive technician, was denied workers’ compensation benefits after his 2006 on-the-job injury. The injury was deemed connected to a pre-existing condition. He qualified for short-term disability payments, but that only covered 60 percent of his salary. It wasn’t enough to make full mortgage payments and pay his $10,000 hospital bill.

    When his home lender demanded full payments on his mortgage, Steve threw up his hands. “I pretty much said, ‘Come and get it, there’s nothing I can do.’ ” he said.

    The lender backed down and offered him a payment plan, Steve said. He was able to save the house for now, but said he’s still tapped financially.

    A few doors down from the Myers, Trinidad Monje’s former Main Street home sits vacant, months after going into foreclosure. Judy Myer said it’s been languishing on the market at least two years.

    Down Main Street near 148th Avenue, Maxsim “Max” Lysack said he was forced into foreclosure after his roommate died. He wound up doing a short sale – selling the home for less than his mortgage – in a deal worked out with the lender.

    “I buy it for $285,000, and I sell it for $250,000,” Lysack said.

    Ron Zitzewitz has lived on Main Street off and on since childhood. He doesn’t earn much from disability payments and income from a knife-sharpening business, and moved in with his mother.

    Under her reverse mortgage, the lender takes a greater stake in the home’s equity each month, in lieu of mortgage payments. Zitzewitz can’t qualify for a new loan to refinance the $160,000 his mother owed.

    The house should be worth about $225,000, he said. But Zitzewitz doubts he can sell it for anything close to that because the market is so sour.

    Zitzewitz got married a few months ago, but so far his wife has been unable to find work.

    “We’re going to have to find somewhere else to live.”

    stevelaw@portlandtribune.com

  • Making Capitalism More Creative


    By Bill Gates

    http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1828069,00.html 

    Capitalism has improved the lives of billions of people – something that’s easy to forget at a time of great economic uncertainty. But it has left out billions more. They have great needs, but they can’t express those needs in ways that matter to markets. So they are stuck in poverty, suffer from preventable diseases and never have a chance to make the most of their lives. Governments and nonprofit groups have an irreplaceable role in helping them, but it will take too long if they try to do it alone. It is mainly corporations that have the skills to make technological innovations work for the poor. To make the most of those skills, we need a more creative capitalism: an attempt to stretch the reach of market forces so that more companies can benefit from doing work that makes more people better off. We need new ways to bring far more people into the system – capitalism – that has done so much good in the world.

    There’s much still to be done, but the good news is that creative capitalism is already with us. Some corporations have identified brand-new markets among the poor for life-changing technologies like cell phones. Others – sometimes with a nudge from activists – have seen how they can do good and do well at the same time. To take a real-world example, a few years ago I was sitting in a bar with Bono, and frankly, I thought he was a little nuts. It was late, we’d had a few drinks, and Bono was all fired up over a scheme to get companies to help tackle global poverty and disease. He kept dialing the private numbers of top executives and thrusting his cell phone at me to hear their sleepy yet enthusiastic replies. As crazy as it seemed that night, Bono’s persistence soon gave birth to the (RED) campaign. Today companies like Gap, Hallmark and Dell sell (RED)-branded products and donate a portion of their profits to fight AIDS. (Microsoft recently signed up too.) It’s a great thing: the companies make a difference while adding to their bottom line, consumers get to show their support for a good cause, and – most important – lives are saved. In the past year and a half, (RED) has generated $100 million for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, helping put nearly 80,000 people in poor countries on lifesaving drugs and helping more than 1.6 million get tested for HIV. That’s creative capitalism at work.

    Creative capitalism isn’t some big new economic theory. And it isn’t a knock on capitalism itself. It is a way to answer a vital question: How can we most effectively spread the benefits of capitalism and the huge improvements in quality of life it can provide to people who have been left out?

    The World Is Getting Better
    It might seem strange to talk about creative capitalism when we’re paying more than $4 for a gallon of gas and people are having trouble paying their mortgages. There’s no doubt that today’s economic troubles are real; people feel them deeply, and they deserve immediate attention. Creative capitalism isn’t an answer to the relatively short-term ups and downs of the economic cycle. It’s a response to the longer-term fact that too many people are missing out on a historic, century-long improvement in the quality of life. In many nations, life expectancy has grown dramatically in the past 100 years. More people vote in elections, express their views and enjoy economic freedom than ever before. Even with all the problems we face today, we are at a high point of human well-being. The world is getting a lot better.

    The problem is, it’s not getting better fast enough, and it’s not getting better for everyone. One billion people live on less than a dollar a day. They don’t have enough nutritious food, clean water or electricity. The amazing innovations that have made many lives so much better – like vaccines and microchips – have largely passed them by. This is where governments and nonprofits come in. As I see it, there are two great forces of human nature: self-interest and caring for others. Capitalism harnesses self-interest in a helpful and sustainable way but only on behalf of those who can pay. Government aid and philanthropy channel our caring for those who can’t pay. And the world will make lasting progress on the big inequities that remain – problems like AIDS, poverty and education – only if governments and nonprofits do their part by giving more aid and more effective aid. But the improvements will happen faster and last longer if we can channel market forces, including innovation that’s tailored to the needs of the poorest, to complement what governments and nonprofits do. We need a system that draws in innovators and businesses in a far better way than we do today.

    Naturally, if companies are going to get more involved, they need to earn some kind of return. This is the heart of creative capitalism. It’s not just about doing more corporate philanthropy or asking companies to be more virtuous. It’s about giving them a real incentive to apply their expertise in new ways, making it possible to earn a return while serving the people who have been left out. This can happen in two ways: companies can find these opportunities on their own, or governments and nonprofits can help create such opportunities where they presently don’t exist.

    What’s Been Missed
    As C.K. Prahalad shows in his book The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, there are markets all over the world that businesses have missed. One study found that the poorest two-thirds of the world’s population has some $5 trillion in purchasing power. A key reason market forces are slow to make an impact in developing countries is that we don’t spend enough time studying the needs of those markets. I should know: I saw it happen at Microsoft. For many years, Microsoft has used corporate philanthropy to bring technology to people who can’t get it otherwise, donating more than $3 billion in cash and software to try to bridge the digital divide. But our real expertise is in writing software that solves problems, and recently we’ve realized that we weren’t bringing enough of that expertise to problems in the developing world. So now we’re looking at inequity as a business problem as well as something to be addressed through philanthropy. We’re working on projects like a visual interface that will enable illiterate or semiliterate people to use a PC instantly, with minimal training. Another project of ours lets an entire classroom full of students use a single computer; we’ve developed software that lets each student use her own mouse to control a specially colored cursor so that as many as 50 kids can use one computer at the same time. This is a big advance for schools where there aren’t enough computers to go around, and it serves a market we hadn’t examined before.

    Cell phones are another example. They’re now a booming market in the developing world, but historically, companies vastly underestimated their potential. In 2000, when Vodafone bought a large stake in a Kenyan cell-phone company, it figured that the market in Kenya would max out at 400,000 users. Today that company, Safaricom, has more than 10 million. The company has done it by finding creative ways to serve low-income Kenyans. Its customers are charged by the second rather than by the minute, for example, which keeps down the cost. Safaricom is making a profit, and it’s making a difference. Farmers use their cell phones to find the best prices in nearby markets. A number of innovative uses for cell phones are emerging. Already many Kenyans use them to store cash (via a kind of electronic money) and transfer funds. If you have to carry money over long distances – say, from the market back to your home – this kind of innovation makes a huge difference. You’re less tempting to rob if you’re not holding any cash.

    This is how people can benefit when businesses find opportunities that have been missed. But since I started talking about creative capitalism earlier this year, I’ve heard from some skeptics who doubt that there are any new markets. They say, “If these opportunities really existed, someone would have found them by now.” I disagree. Their argument assumes that businesses have already studied every possible market for their products. Their attitude reminds me of the old joke about an economist who’s walking down the street with a friend. The economist steps over a $10 bill that’s lying on the ground. His friend asks him why he didn’t take the money. “It couldn’t possibly be there,” he explains. “If it were, somebody would’ve picked it up!” Some companies make the same mistake. They think all the $10 bills have already been picked up. It would be a shame if we missed such opportunities, and it would make a huge difference if, instead, researchers and strategists at corporations met regularly with experts on the needs of the poor and talked about new applications for their best ideas.

    Beyond finding new markets and developing new products, companies sometimes can benefit by providing the poor with heavily discounted access to products. Industries like software and pharmaceuticals, for example, have very low production costs, so you can come out ahead by selling your product for a bigger profit in rich markets and for a smaller profit, or at cost, in poor ones. Businesses in other industries can’t do this tiered pricing, but they can benefit from the public recognition and enhanced reputation that come from serving those who can’t pay. The companies involved in the (RED) campaign draw in new customers who want to be associated with a good cause. That might be the tipping point that leads people to pick one product over another.

    There’s another crucial benefit that accrues to businesses that do good work. They will find it easier to recruit and retain great employees. Young people today – all over the world – want to work for organizations that they can feel good about. Show them that a company is applying its expertise to help the poorest, and they will repay that commitment with their own dedication.

    Creating New Incentives
    Even so, no matter how hard businesses look or how creatively they think, there are some problems in the world that aren’t amenable to solution by existing market incentives. Malaria is a great example: the people who most need new drugs or a vaccine are the least able to pay, so the drugs and vaccines never get made. In these cases, governments and nonprofits can create the incentives. This is the second way in which creative capitalism can take wing. Incentives can be as straightforward as giving public praise to the companies that are doing work that serves the poor. This summer, a Dutch nonprofit called the Access to Medicine Foundation started publishing a report card that shows which pharmaceutical companies are doing the most to make sure that medicines are made for – and reach – people in developing countries. When I talk to executives from pharmaceutical companies, they tell me that they want to do more for neglected diseases – but they at least need to get credit for it. This report card does exactly that.

    Publicity is very valuable, but sometimes it’s still not enough to persuade companies to get involved. Even the best p.r. may not pay the bill for 10 years of research into a new drug. That’s why it’s so important for governments to create more financial incentives. Under a U.S. law enacted last year, for example, any drug company that develops a new treatment for a neglected disease like malaria can get a priority review from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for another product it has made. If you develop a new drug for malaria, your profitable cholesterol drug could go on the market as much as a year earlier. Such a priority review could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. It’s a fantastic way for governments to go beyond the aid they already give and channel market forces so they improve even more lives.

    Of course, governments in developing countries have to do a lot to foster capitalism themselves. They must pass laws and make regulations that let markets flourish, bringing the benefits of economic growth to more people. In fact, that’s another argument I’ve heard against creative capitalism: “We don’t need to make capitalism more creative. We just need governments to stop interfering with it.” There is something to this. Many countries could spark more business investment – both within their borders and from the outside – if they did more to guarantee property rights, cut red tape and so on. But these changes come slowly. In the meantime, we can’t wait. As a businessman, I’ve seen that companies can tap new markets right now, even if conditions aren’t ideal. And as a philanthropist, I’ve found that our caring for others compels us to help people right now. The longer we wait, the more people suffer needlessly.

    The Next Step
    In june, I moved out of my day-to-day role at Microsoft to spend more time on the work of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I’ll be talking with political leaders about how their governments can increase aid for the poor, make it more effective and bring in new partners through creative capitalism. I’ll also talk with CEOs about what their companies can do. One idea is to dedicate a percentage of their top innovators’ time to issues that affect the people who have been left behind. This kind of contribution takes the brainpower that makes life better for the richest and dedicates some of it to improving the lives of everyone else. Some pharmaceutical companies, like Merck and GlaxoSmithKline, are already doing this. The Japanese company Sumitomo Chemical shared some of its technology with a Tanzanian textile company, helping it produce millions of bed nets, which are crucial tools in the fight to eradicate malaria. Other companies are doing the same in food, cell phones and banking.

    In other words, creative capitalism is already under way. But we can do much more. Governments can create more incentives like the FDA voucher. We can expand the report-card idea beyond the pharmaceutical industry and make sure the rankings get publicity so companies get credit for doing good work. Consumers can reward companies that do their part by buying their products. Employees can ask how their employers are contributing. If more companies follow the lead of the most creative organizations in their industry, they will make a huge impact on some of the world’s worst problems.

    More than 30 years ago, Paul Allen and I started Microsoft because we wanted to be part of a movement to put a computer on every desk and in every home. Ten years ago, Melinda and I started our foundation because we want to be part of a different movement – this time, to help create a world where no one has to live on a dollar a day or die from a disease we know how to prevent. Creative capitalism can help make it happen. I hope more people will join the cause.

  • Bloomberg.com: Crisis Hits Main Street as Employers Cut More Jobs


    By Shobhana Chandra and Rich Miller

    Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) — U.S. payrolls plunged in September, signaling the economy may be heading for its worst recession in at least a quarter century as the 13-month-old credit crisis on Wall Street finally hits home on Main Street.

    Employers cut the most jobs in five years in September as cash-squeezed companies pulled back in an effort to bolster pinched profits. In its last employment report before Americans choose their next president, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate was 6.1 percent, a climb of 1.4 percentage points from a year before.

    “If credit markets remain dysfunctional, the current recession could turn out to be as severe as any in the postwar period,” said former Federal Reserve governor Lyle Gramley, now senior economic adviser at the Stanford Group Co. in Washington.

    The spreading crisis is also having reverberations on the campaign trail, as polls show anxious voters increasingly see Democrat Barack Obama as the candidate best placed to see the U.S. through its economic travails. The unemployment rate has only risen twice in the year leading up to elections since World War II, and in each case the incumbent party lost.

    `This country can’t afford Senator McCain’s plan to give America four more years of the same policies that have devastated our middle class and our economy for the last eight,” Obama, 47, said in a statement.

    McCain’s Reaction

    Arizona Senator John McCain, 72, took the opportunity to paint his opponent as a tax-and-spend liberal, whose prescriptions would exacerbate the crisis.

    “Unlike Senator Obama, I do not believe we will create one single American job by increasing taxes, going on a massive spending binge, and closing off markets,” McCain said in a statement. “Our nation cannot afford Senator Obama’s higher taxes.”

    Job losses accelerated as the credit crisis deepened last month, forcing the failure or government takeovers of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and American International Group Inc.

    The figures came hours before a scheduled vote in the House of Representatives on a $700 billion rescue plan for the U.S. financial industry pushed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The Senate approved the legislation two days ago after the House rejected an initial version of the bill Sept. 29.

    Market Reaction

    Stocks rose and Treasury securities fell on optimism the rescue plan would pass the House. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.9 percent to 1,146.1 at 11:08 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 3.72 percent from 3.63 percent late yesterday.

    Today’s report showed that hours worked — considered a good proxy for the state of the overall economy — matched the lowest level since records began in 1964. That indicates the likely current recession may be at least as severe as the 1981-82 slump, during which gross domestic product shrank by 2.7 percent.

    Payrolls fell by 159,000 in September, the Labor Department said in Washington. Aside from a 9,000 gain in government payrolls, all major categories showed declines except education and healthcare.

    “The really bad news here is that job losses are now widespread,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts, forecasting firm. “The problems in housing and manufacturing are now spreading everywhere. We are in a recession, there is no debate about that.”

    Health Services

    Even the vibrant health-services industry is showing signs of succumbing to the economy’s troubles. Health care employment rose 17,000, about half the average monthly gain for the prior 12 months.

    Walgreen Co., the largest U.S. drugstore chain, reported Sept. 29 that its profits rose less than analysts estimated after it posted its smallest sales increase in a decade.

    A private report today showed that services-industry growth remained stagnant in September. The Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index slipped to 50.2 from 50.6 the month before. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and expansion.

    Total payrolls were forecast to drop 105,000 after declining by a previously estimated 84,000 in August, according to the median of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate was projected to remain at 6.1 percent.

    Rate Forecasts

    Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, said the unemployment rate may eventually rise to more than 7 percent as the credit crunch takes its toll on the economy. If that happens, that would make the overall rise in unemployment the biggest since the early 1980’s.

    Workers’ average hourly wages rose 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.17 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.4 percent higher than September 2007. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.3 percent increase from August and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

    After today, the total decline in payrolls so far this year has reached 760,000. The economy created 1.1 million jobs in 2007.

    Americans will go to the polls on Nov. 4 and the October jobs report is due Nov. 7.

    `Angry’ Voters

    “Voters are extremely angry, and they want someone to blame,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.

    Obama has opened up a lead over Republican rival John McCain in the aftermath of their first debate and amid growing concerns about the economy, according to a Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 27 to Sept. 29. A mid-September poll from Washington- based Pew had shown the candidates were in a statistical tie.

    Earlier in September, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll showed more respondents said Obama would do a better job handling the financial crisis than McCain, and almost half of the voters believed he had better ideas to strengthen the economy than his rival.

    Factory payrolls fell 51,000 after decreasing 56,000 in August. Economists had forecast a drop of 57,000.

    Today’s report also reflected the housing slump. Payrolls at builders declined 35,000 after falling 13,000. Financial firms decreased payrolls by 17,000, the most since November last year.

    Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 82,000 workers after eliminating 16,000 in the previous month. Retail payrolls slid by 40,100 after a 25,400 drop.

    Hewlett-Packard

    In the past month, Hewlett-Packard Co., the world’s largest personal-computer maker, announced it will cut 24,600 jobs, and auto-parts maker Federal-Mogul Corp. said it would eliminate 4,000 positions globally.

    Marriott International Inc., the world’s largest hotel chain, yesterday reported third-quarter profit fell 28 percent as U.S. companies and consumers cut back on travel.

    Without action from Congress, “the resulting credit squeeze could threaten businesses,” Chief Financial Officer Arne Sorenson said on a conference call. There are “tens of thousands of jobs at stake in our company alone, and we are typical.”

    Mounting job cuts will further limit consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. A Bloomberg survey in September predicted spending will be unchanged this quarter, the weakest performance since 1991.

    The ISM on Oct. 1 said manufacturing shrank in September at the fastest pace since the last recession in 2001. The odds the central bank will lower its benchmark rate by a half percentage point, to 1.5 percent, were almost 100 percent today, up from 32 percent a week ago.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net